Should it matter to all the citizens of the world if the 688 cities of China will grow to resemble cities like Houston, Texas, US or Toronto, Ontario, Canada? The answer is a resounding yes. “China is now the single fastest-growing auto market in the world, and the second largest in Asia after Japan.” (Washington Post)
A major competition between the automobile and public transit is occurring to determine which transportation mode will succeed in designing urban China: an automobile dependent city or a public transit friendly city.
Today the price of oil is surging beyond $55 per barrel. Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are contributing to a warmer and more unpredictable climate. The growing popularity of automobile use in China is exacting a heavy influence on the price of oil and the changing climate. The International Energy Agency predicts that in the next three decades, China will produce enough GHG emissions to almost equal the total of all emissions from the industrialized world. About 10 years ago, car fuel made up about 10% of the demand for oil in China. Today that proportion has grown to one-third and is expected to grow to 40% by 2010.
How much warmer will our climate be and how much more expensive will the price of oil become in 2050? That answer will ultimately be decided by many factors, including transportation technology development. However, the dependency on the automobile for urban transportation will be determined by the pattern of urban growth that is now happening in China.
A look at Houston, Texas and Toronto, Ontario shows an interesting example of two cities. Of all the cities in North America, Houston is one that is most dependent on automobile transportation, while Toronto, Ontario is the least automobile dependent metropolitan region. According to the US Federal Highway Administration, on average, every Houston resident travels 60 kms per day in the automobile. In the City of Toronto, per capita auto travel is 16 kms per day, about one quarter the vehicle kilometres travelled in Houston. Interestingly, vehicle ownership rates in Toronto are only 12% less than similar rates in Houston but vehicle kilometres travelled are 75% less.
|
|
City of Toronto |
Houston |
|
Population |
2,300,00 |
2,487,000 |
|
Daily Vehicle Kilometers Travelled per capita |
16 |
60 |
|
Population per hectare |
41.5 |
6.25 |
|
Commuting by Automobile |
64.6% |
92% |
|
Commuting by Public Transit |
30.1% |
3% |
|
Transportation Emissions CO2 per capita |
2,290 |
5,157 |
|
Total Vehicles per 1,000 population |
706 |
797 |
While both Toronto and Houston have experienced rapid urbanization in the last 50 years, Toronto was fortunate to have an already established urban infrastructure that promoted public transit. Unfortunately for Houston, most of its urban development occurred from 1950 to 1980, a period of rapid freeway expansion in the United States.
About 75% of urban Americans own an automobile while 60% of urban Canadians do. While the rate of automobile ownership is 20% less in Canada, the rate of automobile vehicle kilometres traveled in urban Canada is about 40% less. Although there is some correlation between automobile ownership and vehicle kilometres travelled, the relationship is weaker than the influence of urban development patterns. From the period of 1950 to 1980, Canadians built one freeway kilometre for every four that were built in the US.
The built-in dependence on the automobile is reinforced by the pattern of urban development chosen. Once urban and transportation planners begin to design communities that conform to the automobile, these communities become less capable to support public transit. Houston is now aggressively investing in mass transit alternative to lower automobile dependence but the automobile influenced pattern of urban development will limit the success of these public transit initiatives.
In China, urbanization is occurring at a far greater rate than anywhere in the world in the past 100 years. The pace is occurring so quickly, that urban planning authorities are unable to adopt urban master plans to anticipate the rate of urban development over the course of the next 5 to 10 years. The best and most responsible course of action is to adopt a general direction of urban development that is based on the elements of a balanced transportation system. The decisions that urban China is making now will strongly influence the price of oil and the rates of GHG emissions in 2050.
The Magplane team provides the Chinese government with urban planning expertise that is able to link Magplane technology to the urban development options facing the country for the next two generations.
In our next website story, we will be discussing the important role that the World Bank plays in China and how the Magplane technology and approach complements the strategic direction favoured by the World Bank for China.
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