November 5th, 2004
The World Bank plays a central role in the development of cities in fast growing urban economies in the third world and in quickly transitioning market driven economies such as China. Roughly 80% of the national economy of China originates in its cities. As a result, the World Bank is devoting considerable effort to collaborate with China to improve the livability, competitiveness, environmental sustainability and financial sustainability of the urban economies. In particular the World Bank supports the development of urban strategies in China to:
The coordination and management of urban development in China is increasingly being extended beyond the limits of the metropolis. In the case of Shanghai, urban management scenarios include the entire Yangtze River Delta Region.
Chreod, a Canadian urban planning firm that has participated in a series of studies in urban China identified four distinctive regional urban patterns in the Yangtze River Delta region: City Centered Region with a radius of 200 kms; an Urban Cluster with a radius of 100 to 200 kms; an Urban Corridor with a radius of 100 to 200 kms; and a Megalopolis with a radius of 200 to 300 kms.
Commuting lengths that are measured by time determine the spatial limit of cities. In today¡¯s metropolitan regions, the general limit is about a 60 or a 90 minute trip, which for motorists restricts the urban radius to about 100 or 150 kilometers depending on congestion levels.
The spatial limit of each of these four urban development patterns in the Yangtze River Delta especially the Megalopolis is greater than the commuting range currently being developed in Urban China, whether the travel mode is the automobile or conventional mass transit systems. While subway systems or monorails that typically serve very dense urban centers can be extended, the travel time limits restrict the range of these systems to about 30 to 50 kilometers. Also commuter railroads can certainly be extended to 200 kms or so, but the travel time restriction of 60 to 90 minutes, would require that these systems adopt very high operating speeds. And to improve the efficiencies of modal transfers from the commuting railroads to the bus networks or the subway systems, a high degree of coordinated system planning would be required. Because railroad equipment cannot operate in subways, any planning error would result in lost efficiencies in later years as cities continually evolve through time.
Maglev technology was originally developed to provide transportation services between metropolitan regions at faster speeds than alternative technologies, such as steel-wheel trains. The recent successful Transrapid application in Shanghai connecting the downtown area to Pudong Airport, has also shown the potential of Maglev technology to provide mass transit.
The Magplane technology integrates the mass transit attributes for shorter distance travel with the speed of inter-city travel. Traveling at speeds of 300 kms per hour or more, a one hour or 90 minute travel time threshold can span even the greatest spatial emergence of the urban form: the 300 km long radius of the Metropolis.
The Magplane was originally designed for the Interactive Megalopolis. The term Interactive Megalopolis was adopted by the Magplane designers to describe the increased interaction between metropolitan regions that a Magplane mass transit system could provide. The Magplane is well suited to consolidate the four urban development patterns in the Yangtze River Delta Region identified by Chreod.
Historically, mass transit systems within metropolitan regions in North America were financed by governments. Is this the model that can be used in China? The answer depends on the ability of the maglev technology to provide commuting services for workers traveling very long distances. And it will be important to ensure that the maglev system be made affordable to a majority of the commuting population.
Both the World Bank and government authorities may wish to evaluate the potential of Maglev technology to provide the necessary commuting range for urban workers but at considerable higher speeds.
Considerable research should be conducted to understand how these maglev systems can be financed, designed and installed. The World Bank is addressing the financial requirements of the emerging urban form in China by recommending:
Various benefit-cost studies that are employed by many governments to prioritize transportation investments will have to be conducted in collaboration with various levels of governments and with the World Bank. Increased economic competitiveness, improved environmental sustainability, and the enhanced social integration of urban China are economic/societal benefits that are different than ridership benefits that are measured in terms of tickets sold and revenues generated. Considerable dialogue among the principal players in the emerging urban form of China (Megalopolis) will be needed in order to adapt maglev technology for the future generations of city dwellers.
The new expanded urban form in China will accommodate the automobile but the automobile will not exert the same type of urban design influence that it currently wields in North America. The next story will describe how the future role of the automobile in the Interlocking Metropolitan Region of China can be influenced by a longer reaching Maglev commuting technology like the Magplane system.
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